Round 6: Happy Happy Fun Times

[Neil Patrick Harris]

Wow, I am SO glad that we've finally merged. It was getting boring beating the snot out of other team each and every challenge. ;D

So the real strategizing has finally begun for the ex-Chukar people -- voting out Audrina last time was a freebie. I've made a conscious effort to be as outgoing as possible in an attempt to take control of the situation, which I never really did in the last game I played. So far, I think things are working out well. Gary and I have gotten pretty close, and I think that we're each other's biggest ally at this point. If all goes well, we'll be the people controlling the game from here on out.

In our chat this evening, we came up with our plan for Tribal Council this week: we're going to try to make the other tribe think we're voting for Mark, and then vote out Brett, who is clearly the biggest threat in challenges. The trick is making sure that Brett doesn't use the hidden immunity idol that he probably still has. So far I've sent messages to all of the ex-Chukar people to get everyone on the same page, and I've also reached out to Brett in an attempt to start a dialogue. I already felt that we had some sort of connection because of the absurdly long tiebreaker challenge, so my goal was really just to be friendly with him, and once he brought up tribal council, try to subtly let him know that we're voting for Mark. So far, I think it's worked perfectly. He told me that there was some dissension in the other tribe, and that he and "the girls" (who I take to mean Sofia and Heidi) were already thinking about voting for Mark. I don't really care if he's telling the truth or not, so long as he doesn't use his immunity idol.

Right now, my hope is that a) everyone on my team will go along with the plan without too much griping; and b) that I can keep stringing Brett along until tribal, in hopes that he doesn't find out about our plan. On that last point, I'm intentionally not telling most of the ex-Chukar people about my dealings with Brett and the fake Mark vote part of the plan, because I don't want to over-complicate things (the only person I've told is Cher, and Gary obviously knows because we came up with the plan together). I'm also stressing that everyone has to be super quiet about the vote or we risk getting slammed by a hidden immunity idol. Barring any crazy changes, the best case scenario right now is that the vote will go 8 for Brett, 3 for Mark, and 1 vote for whoever Mark votes for. Oh please, spirit god of hidden immunity idols, don't let Brett find out and fuck up my plan.

[Neil Patrick Harris]

One final thought that I forgot to mention: this vote is extra important, because if we can get through this one then we'll have a big enough majority that we can start splitting the vote and eliminate the possibility of getting stung by a hidden immunity idol. Obviously that would necessitate keeping the whole team together, but such are the difficulties of Survivor.

[Neil Patrick Harris]

Remember what I wrote about people needlessly fucking up a simple vote? THAT. Consider this post my attempt to make sense of the situation, because it completely boggles my mind.

So everything seemed to be rolling along smoothly until only like an hour ago. I got three messages, the last of which was the most interesting and the most ominous: Kathy told me to use my idol tonight, because she suspects that Gary is working with the other tribe and that they're planning on voting for me. Obviously not good. I started to go over things in my head: is it really possible that Gary could be lying to me? As I informed Kathy, last night Gary and I had a fairly lengthy and really detailed chat about our strategy for this round. HE was the first one to say that we should try to stick together (meaning the ex-Chukar people), and HE was the one that first brought up the idea of lying to Mark and voting out Brett. At the risk of seeming really naive, this is an awfully elaborate lie if Gary is really working against me. If I were in his position and I really did want to turn on an ally, I'd want to spend the least amount of time possible interacting with him and, at the very least, not get too deep into complicated strategy talks at the risk of upsetting my real allies.

The first two messages I received complicated matters further: they were both from Cher, urging me to vote for George. Normally this wouldn't be a big deal -- Cher seems to have her head in the sand and is basically throwing a vote away -- but it makes all the numbers tighter and less predictable.

Right now, I'm hoping to hear back from Kathy regarding who she heard this stuff from. I've already heard back from all of the other ex-Chukar people, minus George, who all seem to be OK with voting for Brett. To my mind, there seem to be three possibilities for tonight's vote:

1) Gary really is plotting against me, and he's informed Brett of my duplicity last night. The result is likely a 6-5-1 or 5-5-1 vote (depending on whether or not George votes, given his inactivity), with 6 (5) ex-Chukar people voting for Brett, 5 people voting for me (ex-Mohua and Gary), and Cher voting for George. In this scenario, the only way I can stay alive is to use my immunity idol, because Brett would presumably use his after being told to do so by Gary.

2) Gary isn't actually plotting against me but the ex-Mohua people are. In this case, the numbers work out to 7-4-1 or 6-4-1, and I'm in the same position as the first scenario, having to use my idol.

3) Kathy has no idea what she's talking about, and the vote comes down 7-3-1-1 or something like that; this is essentially the scenario I outlined yesterday, with the added complication that Cher votes for George and George may or may not vote at all.

So there seem to be two key considerations: is Gary really plotting against me, and more importantly, are the ex-Mohua people planning on voting for me? To be totally honest, and again at the risk of being duped, I find them both kind of difficult to believe on their own. It would have required both Gary and Brett to go into really, really detailed lies in their dealings with me, and in both cases it was mostly the other person who was the instigator in terms of specific strategy ideas/questions (Brett, for instance, was the one that first mentioned that there was dissension between he and Mark in the old Mohua tribe).

The other thing I have to bring into consideration -- and this is mostly an assumption on my part -- is the likelihood that I've got more extensive information on what's going on than anyone else in the game, owing to my dealings with everyone on our tribe plus Brett. I'm not convinced that Kathy is in a better position than I am to predict what's going to happen, because I can virtually guarantee that I've spent more time conversing with Brett and Gary than she has, not to mention most of the other players in the game.

I guess the good news is that if I remain confused in a couple of hours I can just use my idol and, if my worst fears are realized, then George will probably go home as a result of Cher's vote. In this case, we'd retain a tribal majority and Brett's idol would be gone, making for an easy vote next round, but I'd be without my idol. Not good, and using my idol is something I'm loathe to do unless I'm absolutely sure I need to.

Ooh, late breaking news! Brett just sent me a message as I was writing this, seeming legitimately concerned that the plan we discussed (the fake one involving him and his group voting for Mark) was off, because Cher told him to vote for George. Man, Cher is really fucking things up here. Brett said that he and the ex-Mohua girls had already voted. I told Brett that everything was still a go (which is true, but he doesn't know that the real plan is to vote for him). Once again, here's something that makes me question Kathy's information. If Brett's pulling the wool over my eyes then kudos to him, because he's going to really great lengths to do it.

So at this point my plan is to figure my plan out later; I'm going to see what happens over the next couple of hours, and then make a final decision about whether or not to use my idol. This shit sucks, yo.

And here endeth my first official uber-confessional of Survivor: New Zealand. ;D

[Neil Patrick Harris]

One last update before tribal. I've decided to use my hidden immunity idol, which I'm not happy about... both because of the fact that I might be in real danger, and the possibility that I might be wasting it for no real reason. In essence, using my idol represents me just throwing up my hands and giving up on this round in hopes of figuring out what happened later.

What made me settle on using it was a message I got from Kathy. Here it is in its entirely:

"Take my advice if you want, don't and you might regret it.

I heard it from Cher who heard it from Heidi who blabbed about everything. Brett used his idol and Gary is with them because of a past relationship in the tribe. They have 5 votes for you and since Brett used his idol that would mean your going. That's why me and Cher are voting George, we aren't wasting our votes.

I know about the conversations you have been having, By now I think everyone has. Blame Mohua."

I still think there's a possibility that she's wrong, but the story she's telling seems plausible enough that I think that using my idol is the correct move.

On a side note, it sure seems to me that there's an implied threat in Kathy's message. I'm not happy about it, and it's something I won't forget.

The consequences of this vote are many, but I'll wait to talk about them until after I've actually seen the votes and know what happened. Suffice it to say that without an idol I'll be at much greater risk from here on out. I guess the good news is that I was already an enormous target, so in that respect it doesn't change much, and I'll probably still have to be as dominant as possible in the challenges in order to go far.